If you believe in locks & guarantees, you’ve looked in the wrong place. I make none! I will tell you this: that based on my history, which I admit you have no way of documenting, I will hit 56% - 60% of my major plays. That means I believe that each one of my picks has a 56% - 60% chance of winning.
How do I determine my Major plays? One type is automatic and refers to my rating system. If I have a team rated higher than another team and that higher team comes in as an underdog, that is an automatic major play.
In explaining my second type of major play I thought it might be a good idea to take you through the work I do each week of the college season:
1). Read as much of the game stories on each game played the previous week.
2). Log the stats for each game played the prior week.
3). Check the Gold Sheet and various websites for injuries.
4). Adjust each team’s rating based on the results of 1, 2 & 3.
When I complete this process we then turn to the current week’s match-ups. Using the South Florida-Pittsburgh match-up as an example, I will ask myself the following questions:
1). Will So. Fla. run the ball on Pitts?
2). Will So. Fla.. pass the ball on Pitts?
3). Will Pitts. run the ball on So. Fla.?
4). Will Pitts pass the ball on S. Fla.?
5). Who wants the game more?
I answer those questions and then attempt to develop my own line for the game independent, and without knowledge of the “Vegas” line.
If my line differs by 3 or more from that “Vegas” line it becomes a major play. So for e.g. in the Pitts. – So. Fla. Game, let’s say I believe the line should be Pitts. -1. The actual “Vegas” line is Pitts. -4. The line is 3 points different from mine, so the automatic play is So. Fla. +4.
P.S. College-Edge Rule: I will not release a major play with a team favored by 10.5 or more.
Go to “to the 52.4% BARRIER” for advice in pitfalls to avoid